The Gulf states have been a thorn in the side of European air carriers for some time now. Legacy airlines like Lufthansa, Air France- KLM and British Airways have seen their lunch gradually eaten up by the likes of Etihad and Qatar Airways.

Back in 2017, Europe’s old guard wanted the EU to crack down on the newcomers and impose sanctions if needed. Accusations were thrown around about uncompetitive practices and state aid subsidies, all of which the Gulf carriers strenuously denied.

Fast-forward two years – and the EU has brokered an agreement with Qatar that will not only liberalise the airspace between the two parties, but which will also oblige the desert kingdom to adhere to the same environmental and labour standards that are in place in Europe.

The deal has already raised eyebrows, because to many it looks one-sided: the Qataris get access to a massive market, while the European carriers get a smaller prize.

But it’s the first of what are expected to be more bilateral deals. The European Commission also has permission from EU nations to hash something out with Dubai-based Emirates, the largest airline in the Middle East. When you consider the Qatar agreement as just the starter, then the full main of an Emirates deal looks like a mouth­watering prospect for European aviation.

This is clearly a long-term project that will only come to fruition and pay off in the decade to come. It is a slow-burning win that the UK looks like missing out on after Brexit.

Admittedly, the UK’s departure probably weakens the EU’s ability to crack these deals, given that London is one of the most popular destinations and Heathrow is one of the busiest hubs. But Brussels will make do with what it’s left with.

The continent’s environment ministers also gave a clue this month as to what else might be looming on the horizon, as talks are ongoing about finally imposing some form of taxation on plane travel.

Belgium and the Netherlands have made official proposals to the other member states on either taxing aircraft fuel or rolling out VAT on tickets. Both countries insist that aviation has to do more to clean up its act, as emissions continue to rise.

Momentum could build behind the idea, which is due to be thoroughly dissected at a meeting in the Netherlands in June. France is believed to be on board, as are the Nordic nations. If another big player like Germany or Spain signs up, then anything is possible.

Taxation requires unanimous voting in the convoluted EU decision-making process but as more questions are asked about where the deep emissions cuts Europe needs are going to come from, national governments might choose aviation as the sacrificial lamb.

Again, the best a post-Brexit UK could hope for is a bilateral deal. It would be a boon but just a taste of what it could have had.

But what if Brexit arrives on time and the dreaded no-deal ends up becoming a reality? Much has been written about how flights will be grounded and European airspace closed to British carriers if there is no agreement.

To some extent, the EU threw the UK a lifeline at the end of 2018 when the Commission agreed to guarantee what is essentially a bare minimum provision of services. Under the temporary measures, made necessary by the fact that there are no World Trade Organisation fallback options, flights will be able to continue for 12 months between the two parties. There are, of course, plenty of caveats.

The problems start when you look at intra-EU flights operated by majority-British-owned carriers like Vueling and Iberia. The rules are clear: unless an airline has at least 51 per cent EU ownership, an operating licence will not be issued.

Brussels transport chiefs insist that those companies have had plenty of time to adapt to the risks posed by Brexit, but have suggested they would be willing to grant more time if no deal ends up as the final destination.

It is the same story for EU carriers. Low-cost Ryanair might have to kiss goodbye to its lucrative UK-only services or rely on Westminster granting special permissions.

It is hard work reporting on mere ifs, buts and maybes. But aviation is no different from any other Brexit-affected sector: it’s the uncertainty that’s the killer.

The Gulf states have been a thorn in the side of European air carriers for some time now. Legacy airlines like Lufthansa, Air France- KLM and British Airways have seen their lunch gradually eaten up by the likes of Etihad and Qatar Airways.

Back in 2017, Europe’s old guard wanted the EU to crack down on the newcomers and impose sanctions if needed. Accusations were thrown around about uncompetitive practices and state aid subsidies, all of which the Gulf carriers strenuously denied.

Fast-forward two years – and the EU has brokered an agreement with Qatar that will not only liberalise the airspace between the two parties, but which will also oblige the desert kingdom to adhere to the same environmental and labour standards that are in place in Europe.

The deal has already raised eyebrows, because to many it looks one-sided: the Qataris get access to a massive market, while the European carriers get a smaller prize.

But it’s the first of what are expected to be more bilateral deals. The European Commission also has permission from EU nations to hash something out with Dubai-based Emirates, the largest airline in the Middle East. When you consider the Qatar agreement as just the starter, then the full main of an Emirates deal looks like a mouth­watering prospect for European aviation.

This is clearly a long-term project that will only come to fruition and pay off in the decade to come. It is a slow-burning win that the UK looks like missing out on after Brexit.

Admittedly, the UK’s departure probably weakens the EU’s ability to crack these deals, given that London is one of the most popular destinations and Heathrow is one of the busiest hubs. But Brussels will make do with what it’s left with.

The continent’s environment ministers also gave a clue this month as to what else might be looming on the horizon, as talks are ongoing about finally imposing some form of taxation on plane travel.

Belgium and the Netherlands have made official proposals to the other member states on either taxing aircraft fuel or rolling out VAT on tickets. Both countries insist that aviation has to do more to clean up its act, as emissions continue to rise.

Momentum could build behind the idea, which is due to be thoroughly dissected at a meeting in the Netherlands in June. France is believed to be on board, as are the Nordic nations. If another big player like Germany or Spain signs up, then anything is possible.

Taxation requires unanimous voting in the convoluted EU decision-making process but as more questions are asked about where the deep emissions cuts Europe needs are going to come from, national governments might choose aviation as the sacrificial lamb.

Again, the best a post-Brexit UK could hope for is a bilateral deal. It would be a boon but just a taste of what it could have had.

But what if Brexit arrives on time and the dreaded no-deal ends up becoming a reality? Much has been written about how flights will be grounded and European airspace closed to British carriers if there is no agreement.

To some extent, the EU threw the UK a lifeline at the end of 2018 when the Commission agreed to guarantee what is essentially a bare minimum provision of services. Under the temporary measures, made necessary by the fact that there are no World Trade Organisation fallback options, flights will be able to continue for 12 months between the two parties. There are, of course, plenty of caveats.

The problems start when you look at intra-EU flights operated by majority-British-owned carriers like Vueling and Iberia. The rules are clear: unless an airline has at least 51 per cent EU ownership, an operating licence will not be issued.

Brussels transport chiefs insist that those companies have had plenty of time to adapt to the risks posed by Brexit, but have suggested they would be willing to grant more time if no deal ends up as the final destination.

It is the same story for EU carriers. Low-cost Ryanair might have to kiss goodbye to its lucrative UK-only services or rely on Westminster granting special permissions.

It is hard work reporting on mere ifs, buts and maybes. But aviation is no different from any other Brexit-affected sector: it’s the uncertainty that’s the killer.