Voters backing Brexit in the UK and Donald Trump in the US in unexpected numbers has led to considerable debate and research about the social factors driving voters towards populism. Studies have concluded that certain characteristics – whiteness, older age, and lower levels of education and use of digital technologies – are correlated with appetite for Brexit.

However, the authors of the Institute for the Future of Work report [PDF] state that these factors do little to explain why these groups of people voted to sever the UK’s decades-long relationship with the EU.

An analysis by the institute – which used the Office for National Statistics analysis of probability of automation by local authority – found that areas at highest risk of automation (North East, South West, and parts of the Midlands) were significantly more likely to back Brexit in the 2016 referendum. Of all local authorities in England, Boston had both the highest Leave share (75.6 per cent) and the highest probability of automation (56.8 per cent). Meanwhile, London’s local authorities had the lowest Leave vote shares and the lowest risks of automation.

Automation risk was a stronger predictor of anti-EU voting behaviour than age, gender, or ethnicity, with a “strikingly close relationship”. The factors previously confirmed to be good predictors of a ‘Leave’ vote – particularly lower levels of education and familiarity with digital technologies – are largely associated with lower ability to respond to economic change.

“The transition of labour from old tasks to new, driven by new technologies, causes uncertainty, social fragmentation, resistance and periods of halting adjustment. As a result, periods of rapid technological change are associated with higher levels of social and economic insecurity. How an individual, firm or community responds is likely to be determined by their resilience during that change process,” the authors wrote.

While concerns about automation are frequently overblown (overestimating the ability of AI to replace human intelligence), the Institute for the Future of Work estimates that approximately 20 per cent of jobs will be lost to automation within the next 10-15 years. More common will be significant changes to human responsibilities in the workplace due to technological innovation, requiring many workers to learn new skillsets.

“The risks and inequalities associated with automation must be squarely addressed to maximise benefits and avoid exacerbating Britain’s divides,” the report warned.

The report recommends measures which could be taken to ensure everybody can benefit from automation: a work strategy aimed at shaping “socially responsible” automation; increased investment in retraining, including in the National Retraining Programme; active labour market policies to support workers through the transition, such as introducing tools for better job and skills matching; updating the Equality Act to bring in new protections to counter socio-economic disadvantage; and greater consultation and transparency about the introduction of new technologies.

The threat and opportunities associated with automation has become a prominent political issue, particularly as politicians seek to win over disillusioned voters at high risk of losing their jobs to automation.

In the UK, the Green Party is proposing the creation of a Universal Basic Income paid to all UK residents to mitigate inequality as the economy is transformed by automation, while the Labour Party has promised a pilot for Universal Basic Income and the creation of a “National Education Service” to provide free education for adults to reskill, and the Liberal Democrats have pledged a “Skills Wallet” of £10,000 for every adult to spend on lifelong education and training to ensure that they have relevant skills for the future. The Conservative Party, meanwhile, has proposed a £3bn “National Skills Fund” to help businesses find the workers they need to matching funding for training individuals

Voters backing Brexit in the UK and Donald Trump in the US in unexpected numbers has led to considerable debate and research about the social factors driving voters towards populism. Studies have concluded that certain characteristics – whiteness, older age, and lower levels of education and use of digital technologies – are correlated with appetite for Brexit.

However, the authors of the Institute for the Future of Work report [PDF] state that these factors do little to explain why these groups of people voted to sever the UK’s decades-long relationship with the EU.

An analysis by the institute – which used the Office for National Statistics analysis of probability of automation by local authority – found that areas at highest risk of automation (North East, South West, and parts of the Midlands) were significantly more likely to back Brexit in the 2016 referendum. Of all local authorities in England, Boston had both the highest Leave share (75.6 per cent) and the highest probability of automation (56.8 per cent). Meanwhile, London’s local authorities had the lowest Leave vote shares and the lowest risks of automation.

Automation risk was a stronger predictor of anti-EU voting behaviour than age, gender, or ethnicity, with a “strikingly close relationship”. The factors previously confirmed to be good predictors of a ‘Leave’ vote – particularly lower levels of education and familiarity with digital technologies – are largely associated with lower ability to respond to economic change.

“The transition of labour from old tasks to new, driven by new technologies, causes uncertainty, social fragmentation, resistance and periods of halting adjustment. As a result, periods of rapid technological change are associated with higher levels of social and economic insecurity. How an individual, firm or community responds is likely to be determined by their resilience during that change process,” the authors wrote.

While concerns about automation are frequently overblown (overestimating the ability of AI to replace human intelligence), the Institute for the Future of Work estimates that approximately 20 per cent of jobs will be lost to automation within the next 10-15 years. More common will be significant changes to human responsibilities in the workplace due to technological innovation, requiring many workers to learn new skillsets.

“The risks and inequalities associated with automation must be squarely addressed to maximise benefits and avoid exacerbating Britain’s divides,” the report warned.

The report recommends measures which could be taken to ensure everybody can benefit from automation: a work strategy aimed at shaping “socially responsible” automation; increased investment in retraining, including in the National Retraining Programme; active labour market policies to support workers through the transition, such as introducing tools for better job and skills matching; updating the Equality Act to bring in new protections to counter socio-economic disadvantage; and greater consultation and transparency about the introduction of new technologies.

The threat and opportunities associated with automation has become a prominent political issue, particularly as politicians seek to win over disillusioned voters at high risk of losing their jobs to automation.

In the UK, the Green Party is proposing the creation of a Universal Basic Income paid to all UK residents to mitigate inequality as the economy is transformed by automation, while the Labour Party has promised a pilot for Universal Basic Income and the creation of a “National Education Service” to provide free education for adults to reskill, and the Liberal Democrats have pledged a “Skills Wallet” of £10,000 for every adult to spend on lifelong education and training to ensure that they have relevant skills for the future. The Conservative Party, meanwhile, has proposed a £3bn “National Skills Fund” to help businesses find the workers they need to matching funding for training individuals